Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, March 12, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Filipo)…is located approximately 379 NM west-southwest of Europa Island.

Tropical Cyclone 18S…is located approximately 518 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Filipo)

According to the JTWC warning number 5, sustained winds were 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 17S (Filipo) making landfall approximately 50 NM south of Beira, Mozambique. TC 17S has an obscured low-level circulation with persistent convection over the center and well-defined convective banding, especially in the southern periphery.

Upper-level analysis indicates that 17S is in a favorable environment with robust poleward outflow aloft, due to the mid-latitude jet max south of the low level circulation center (llcc), low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and high (70-90 pct) relative humidity values.

TC 17S is currently tracking southwestwardalong the western and northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. TC 17S is forecast to continue a southward track through 24 hours when it begins to track southeastward due to the propagation of the ridge to the east. After 24 hours the system will increase track speed as it interacts with the upper-level jet to its south.

TC 17S is forecast to weaken to 45 knots due to land interaction over the next 12-24 hours. After 24 hours, the system is anticipated to experience a significant increase in divergence aloft as it tracks toward a jet maxima to the south, allowing for a short period of intensification to occur to 48 hours.

After 48 hours, the system is forecast to begin a weakening trend as vertical wind shear increases to high (above 30 knots) levels and the sea surface temperatures begin to cool.

Tropical Cyclone 18S

According to the JTWC warning number 8, sustained winds were 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 18S with persistent deep convection coming into better vertical alignment with a partially exposed and elongated low-level circulation center (llcc) over the past six hours.

Environmental analysis indicates that 18S is in a marginal environment with low to moderate outflow aloft and high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 18S is currently tracking eastward along the southern periphery of a ridge to the north. Through 48 hours, TC 18S is forecast to take an east-southeast track along the ridge. Beginning near 48 hours, TC 18S is forecast to start a poleward turn to a southwestward track by 120 hours as a ridge over western Australia influences the steering of the system.

TC 18S is forecast to maintain an intensity of near 40 knots until 24 hours due to high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear and weak divergence aloft. Near 24 hours, the system will likely begin a gradual intensification trend continuing through the remainder of the forecast period to an intensity of near 70 knots by 120 hours, primarily due to decreasing vertical wind shear values and improving upper-level divergence.

>>> According to the JTWC, there’s an area of disturbed weather under investigation, being referred to as the Invest 93P…which is located approximately 76 NM north of Weipa, Australia.

Enhanced multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad weakly defined llcc with flaring convection obscuring the llcc.

Environmental analysis indicates 93P is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with enhanced equatorward outflow.

Global models are in good agreement that 93P will weaken as it moves towards high vertical wind shear (30-40 knots). Numerical models have 93P advancing east-southeast over the next 24 hours, briefly tracking over land, then further decaying as it maintains an east-southeastward track. Ensembles are in disagreement when it comes to intensity, with GEFS displaying multiple members intensifying the circulation whereas ECENS members are on a similar track but do not reach TC intensity in recent model runs.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.