Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, March 13, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Filipo)…is located approximately 211 NM southeast of Maputo, Mozambique – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 18S…is located approximately 434 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Filipo) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 7, sustained winds were 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 17S (Filipo) tracking offshore near Maputo, Mozambique, and returning to open water over the past 12 hours. A partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) with deep convection restricted to the southern semicircle is observed in a meteosat-9 satellite visible image. Additionally, robust poleward outflow aloft is observed characterized by prominent cirrus filaments in the southwestern semicircle.

Environmental analysis indicates that 17S is in a favorable environment for further intensification with the aforementioned robust poleward outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 17S is currently tracking south-southwestward along the western periphery of a ridge to the east. TC 17S is forecast to make a southeastward turn within the next 6 hours as the ridge propagates eastward. The system will continue tracking along western periphery of the ridge and increase track speed and interacts with the upper-level jet to the south.

Near 24 hours, TC 17S is forecast to begin subtropical transition and complete subtropical transition by 36 hours. After a sustained subtropical period (36 to 60 hours) having features of both tropical and extratropical systems, the system is forecast to complete extratropical transition by 72 hours.

The forecast rise to peak intensity of 65 knots at 24 hours is primarily due to the increased outflow aloft caused by the TC position relative to the upper-level mid-latitude jet. Following a period of intensification to 24 hours, vertical wind shear is anticipated to sharply rise and initiate an intensity downtrend.

Tropical Cyclone 18S

According to the JTWC warning number 11, sustained winds were 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts tropical cyclone 18S with a partially exposed and increasingly disorganized low-level circulation center. Due to high easterly shear over the system, a westward tilting vortex and intermittent bursts of convection indicate the system is struggling to tap into good outflow aloft.

Environmental analysis indicates that 18S is in a marginal environment for further intensification with weak to moderate poleward outflow aloft, high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 18S is currently tracking southeastward along the southern periphery of a ridge to the north. TC 18S is forecast to continue this track until 36 hours, where it is anticipated to initiate a poleward turn in response to a subtropical ridge positioned over western Australia. The system is forecast to have completed the poleward turn near 72 hours. After 72 hours, TC 18S is expected to continue on a southwestward track for the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding the intensity forecast, TC 18S is forecast to maintain 35 knots through 12 hours due to the relatively disorganized structure and marginal environment. After 12 hours, TC 18S is forecast to then gradually increase intensity throughout the duration of the forecast period as the system tracks into a marginally favorable environment with less vertical wind shear values (10-15 knots) staring at 36 hours and sea surface temperatures remaining very warm.

>>> According to the JTWC, there’s a second area of disturbed weather under investigation, being referred to as the Invest 94S…which is located approximately 129 NM northwest of Darwin, Australia.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a himawari-9 visible satellite image depict a broad area of turning with flaring convection obscuring the assessed llcc.

Environmental analysis indicates 94S is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, good dual-channel divergence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 94S will continue to track generally eastward over the next 24 hours, gradually consolidating along the track.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 27 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

Southwest Pacific Ocean…

>>> According to the JTWC, there’s an area of disturbed weather under investigation, being referred to as the Invest 93P…which is located approximately 76 NM north of Weipa, Australia.

Enhanced multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad weakly defined llcc with flaring convection obscuring the llcc.

Environmental analysis indicates 93P is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with enhanced equatorward outflow.

Global models are in good agreement that 93P will weaken as it moves towards high vertical wind shear (30-40 knots). Numerical models have 93P advancing east-southeast over the next 24 hours, briefly tracking over land, then further decaying as it maintains an east-southeastward track. Ensembles are in disagreement when it comes to intensity, with GEFS displaying multiple members intensifying the circulation whereas ECENS members are on a similar track but do not reach TC intensity in recent model runs.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.