Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, March 19, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18S…is located approximately 341 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia  

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 18S

According to the JTWC warning number 30, sustained winds were 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts redevelopment of well defined spiral banding wrapping into a consolidating mass of deep convection, with hot towers concentrating over the suspected area of the low level circulation center.

The primary limiting factor at this time is the lack of a source of mid-level moisture. GFS and ECMWF analyses indicates TC 18S is nearly surrounded by dry air, however, a pocket of deep central moisture is preventing drier air from penetrating the core.

TC 18S is forecast to track westward through 48 hours under the influence of the steering ridge to the south. Intensification is expected to be gradual over the first 24 hours as the vortex alignment continues to improve, and persistent convection enhances the moisture in the immediate vicinity of the llcc, although dry air is expected to remain entrenched around the periphery.

After 24 hours, models are indicating a period of strong deepening, nearing rapid intensification pace, as vertical calm shear should remain favorable. Peak intensity was set at 75 knots, which held below the aggressive mesoscale models, given that available moisture should remain a limiting factor. Beyond 48 hours, the track will transition to southwestward, as a weakness develops in the ridge.

After 72 hours, the system will begin feeling the effects of increased vertical wind shear due to an approaching upper level jet stream. Additionally, sea surface temperatures will drop. Vertical wind shear will continue to increase throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The five day forecast intensity is set at 35 knots, However, dissipation may occur sooner due to the highly unfavorable environment anticipated by that time.