Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, March 20, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Neville)…is located approximately 493 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia  

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Neville)

According to the JTWC warning number 34, sustained winds were 70 knots…with gusts to near 85 knots.

As depicted in the animated enhanced infrared and visible satellite imagery, tropical cyclone 18S has continued to consolidate rapidly with tightly-curved banding wrapping into a well-defined low-level circulation center (llcc). A color composite microwave image reveals spiral banding over the southern semi-circle wrapping into a small, well-defined microwave eye feature. The system is now vertically aligned, which is allowing the system to commence a rapid intensification phase.

Upper-level conditions are highly favorable, with low vertical wind shear and radial outflow. The initial intensity is assessed at 50 knots based on an average of the bulk of the subjective intensity estimates ranging from 41 to 55 knots. However, recent IR imagery indicates a formative eye developing, which will continue to drive the ongoing rapid intensification trend.

TC 18S will track westward to west-southwestward along the northern periphery of the southern ridge through 72 hours while rapidly intensifying to a peak intensity of 90 knots by 36 hours. The system should maintain 90 knots through 48 hours with steady weakening after 60 hours due to increasing (15-25 knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment.

After 72 hours, the system will begin to round the northwestern periphery of the ridge, interacting with a sharp subtropical upper-level trough. As the system recurves around the ridge, it will track under the leading edge of the aforementioned subtropical trough, with high (25-35 knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures and significant dry air entrainment, contributing to rapid weakening. The system is expected to dissipate by 120 hours prior to completing subtropical transition.