Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, March 22, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Neville)…is located approximately 854 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia  

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Neville)

According to the JTWC warning number 38, sustained winds were 90 knots…with gusts to near 110 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 18S (Neville) with a degrading ragged-eye that has nearly filled as the system weakens.

The current environment is assessed as marginally unfavorable characterized by moderate poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures greatly offset by moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear and dry air beginning to entrain into the system.

TC 18S is forecast to continue on a west-southwestward track through 48 hours as it tracks along the northwestern periphery of the ridge to the south. After 48 hours, the system is forecast to turn more poleward (southwestward) as 18S rounds the western extent of the ridge.

Regarding intensity, TC 18S is expected to continue to weaken as vertical wind shear values remain high, sea surface temperatures decrease, and dry air entrains the system.

Additionally, a pronounced shortwave trough is positioned to the west and will aid in dissipation as 18S encroaches the trough. The system is forecast to weaken to 70 knots near 12 hours, 60 knots near 24 hours, 50 knots near 36 hours, and 40 knots near 48 hours. By 72 hours, TC 18S is anticipated to have entirely dissipated.