Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, March 23, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Neville)…is located approximately 1138 NM west of Learmonth, Australia  

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Neville)

According to the JTWC warning number 40, sustained winds were 70 knots…with gusts to near 85 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an increasingly asymmetric system as warming convective tops and vertical wind shear (vws) have become evident over the last 12 hours. The recently observed eye feature on animated multi-spectral satellite imagery has since become completely obscured as the environment continues to become less conducive for TC sustainment.

North-northeasterly vws of 20-25 knots has increased since the previous warning, as temperature gradients have tightened significantly along the north-northeastern edge of the TC, with upper-level convective tops becoming diffuse southward of the system through the past few hours. As TC 18S continued southwestward, an increasing cold-air stratocumulus deck has wrapped around the western and northern periphery of the system’s circulation.

TC Neville is tracking along the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the south, located in the southeastern Indian Ocean. After 30 hours, the cyclone will move southwestward to southward under the eastward progressing mid-latitude longwave trough.

Over the next 48 hours, environmental conditions will continue to become less-conducive for warm-core system sustainment, as cool, dry air wraps completely into the core structure and vws continues at 20-25 knots into 24 hours, and then increases to 30-35 knots by 48 hours. By the end of the forecast period, complete dissipation of TC 18S is expected as intensities decrease to 30 knots.