Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, February 21, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 16S (Eleanor)…is located approximately 364 NM northeast of St Denis, La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln)…is located approximately 519 NM northeast of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 16S (Eleanor)

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds are 50 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated satellite imagery depicts an aligning convective structure directly over the assessed low-level circulation center (llcc), with observable overshooting tops flaring through the cyclonically curved banding around the southern and western peripheries of the overall tropical cyclone structure. Dry air intrusion has ceased into the core but remains evident along the northern and eastern peripheries, limiting extensive convective development in the northeastern quadrant.

Enhanced upper-level outflow persists from 12 hours ago as enhanced poleward and equatorward outflow supports the recent consolidation of convective structures around the llc.

TC Eleanor will continue eastward under the ridge. After 12 hours, a building subtropical ridge to the east will assume steering and drive the system southward then south-southwestward.

Tropical cyclone 16S is forecast to track south-southwestward along the western periphery of the ridge through 72 hours. After 72 hours, the system will begin slowing down significantly during its expected sharp turn to the west-northwest as the ridge builds to the south in a east to west orientation, forcing the cyclone generally westward just south of La Reunion near 96 hours.

TC 16S is forecast to intensify steadily through 24 hours as the core remains moist with a peak of 65 knots at 24 hours, supported by favorable upper-level conditions and continuing warm sea surface temperatures. After 24 hours, the environmental conditions will steadily worsen with increasing vertical wind shear (30-35 knots), and dry-air entrainment injected into the core of the cyclone, leading to a steady weakening trend to 30 knots by 96 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds are 30 knots…with gusts to near 40 knots