Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, February 22, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 16S (Eleanor)…is located approximately 132 NM south of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln)…is located approximately 264 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 16S (Eleanor)

According to the JTWC warning number 9, sustained winds are 50 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 16S (Eleanor) struggling to maintain central deep convection, with cloud tops warming and intermittent bursts of flaring convection replacing persistent convection over the past 12 hours.

Overall, the environment is assessed as marginally favorable. The system tapped into strong poleward divergence aloft courtesy of an approaching shortwave trough to the southwest of the low level circulation center (llcc). However, dry air (relative humidity near 50 percent) has begun to entrain the western and northern
semicircles

TC 16S is forecast to track south-southwestward through 24 hours as it continues to ride the western periphery of a ridge to the east, while slightly intensifying to a peak intensity near 60 knots at 12 hours. The marginally favorable environment is anticipated to become unfavorable by 12 hours, with increasing vertical wind shear (30+ knots) and poor divergence aloft, starting a weakening trend.

From 24 to 48 hours, a competing steering environment arises, where the primary steering influence will transition from a ridge east of the llcc to a ridge west of the llcc, causing a turn to a westward track by 36 hours. TC 16S is anticipated to track westward from 36 to a northwestward track by 96 hours, with dissipation occurring over water prior to 96 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln)

According to the JTWC warning number 8, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 14P (Lincoln) further consolidating with deep, persistent central convection exhibiting overshooting tops loitered with reports of lightning.

Though the environment is assessed as marginally favorable with warm sea surface temperatures and very low (0-5 knot) vertical wind shear, weak divergence and an elongated low-level circulation center (northeast to southwest orientation), will likely keep intensification limited to a gradual rise over time.

TC 14P is forecast to track west-southwestward through 12 hours and then southwestward to south-southwestward into 48 hours.

A marginally favorable environment will likely allow for a gradual intensification to occur at 48 hours, peaking near 50 knots. Learmonth may be impacted by winds at or slightly higher than the forecast intensity due to compounding the storms track speed with TC intensity (front-left quadrant).

At 48 hours, the emergence of moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and land interaction are expected to begin weakening the system, coming to dissipation over land prior to 72 hours.