Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, February 23, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 16S (Eleanor)…is located approximately 225 NM south of Port Louis, Mauritius – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln)…is located approximately 173 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 16S (Eleanor) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 11, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 16S (Eleanor) experiencing very strong northwesterly
(above 30 knot) vertical wind shear (vws), made evident by a complete southeastward decoupling of upper-level support and associated deep convection.

As indicated by numerical model guidance, a general partial clearing and evaporation of clouds is observed in all but the southeastern quadrant of the system, with significant mid-level dry air entrainment occurring over the past 12 hours.

Sea surface temperatures (sst) are expected to remain marginally favorable throughout the forecast period.
However, with all other environmental factors assessed as unconducive for intensification and further degrading over time, the overall assessment of the current environment is unfavorable.

TC 16S is forecast to track generally west-southwestward through 12 hours as it transitions steering mechanism from a weak ridge over southern Madagascar. From 12 to 36 hours, TC 16S is forecast to take a west-northwestward track along the northeastern periphery of the steering ridge. The assessed unfavorable environment is anticipated to weaken TC 16S, bringing the system to dissipation over water at or prior to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Lincoln)

According to the JTWC warning number 11, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depicts tropical cyclone 14p (Lincoln) exhibiting a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with associated deep convection offset to the southern periphery. Intermittent explosive flaring convection emerged in the southern semicircle with overshooting cloud tops.

Low (0-5 knot) vertical wind shear and increasing poleward outflow aloft may be contributing to a slightly poleward tilted vortex. As indicated by numerical model guidance, dry air entrainment evident in the northeastern quadrant continues to impact the mid-levels of TC 14P, restraining the system from further intensification. Though sea surface temperatures remain warm, the overall assessment of the environment is marginally favorable.

TC 14P is forecast to track along western
periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east-southeast from through 36 hours.

In a marginally favorable to marginal
environment, 14P is anticipated to maintain intensity through 12 hours. After 12 hours, increasing vws and dry air entrainment are expected to weaken the TC, coming to dissipation prior to 36 hours over land.

Landfall is forecast to occur 112 NM south-southwest of Learmonth, Australia with an intensity between
35 knots and 30 knots.