Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, February 5, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 10P (Nat)…is located approximately 682 NM west of Papeete, Tahiti

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Southwestern Pacific Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 10P (Nat)

According to the JTWC warning number 3, sustained winds are 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots.

Tropical cyclone 10P has rapidly consolidated and intensified over the past 12 hours after passing close to the islands of American Samoa. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery suggests that the system may have reached an initial peak about 3-4 hours ago, when deep convection with overshooting tops developed near the assessed low
level circulation center.

Over the last couple of hours however, the satellite loop depicts a much more disorganized convective structure, with warming cloud tops. A microwave image shows a sheared system, with the deep convection organized in a comma-shaped region to the east of low-level banding features, which are exposed to the west of the primary convective area.

The system is tracking eastward through a marginally favorable environment characterized by low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, warm
sea surface temperatures, and strong poleward outflow enhanced by moderate equatorward outflow.

TC 10P is forecast to begin turning onto a southeastward track by 12 hours and begin to accelerate as the gradient on the southwest side of the ridge strengthens. The system will continue tracking southeastward through 36 hours, before the track flattens out as the steering level lowers and the ridge weakens. The forecast track takes the system just northeast of the Cook Islands 36 hours, then approaches Tahiti from the south by the end of the forecast.

In the near-term, the very strong poleward outflow, enhanced by a moderate equatorward outflow channel, is expected to offset increasing west-northwesterly shear and allow the system to intensify up to a maximum of 40-45 knots in the next 12 hours. Conditions rapidly change after 18 hours, with shear forecast to increase sharply to above 30 knots with even higher mid-level shear values, which will quickly decapitate the system, leading to rapid weakening and dissipation.

The system is forecast to dissipate by 72 hours, but likely will dissipate below warning criteria at or before 60 hours. It is possible that after the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone, it may restrengthen as it transitions to a subtropical system beyond 96 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94P…which is located approximately 767 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad, but well-defined, low-level circulation center (llcc) with formative banding in the western semicircle. .

Environmental analysis indicates that 94P is in a favorable environment for further development with good outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that 94P will track slowly northward over the next 48 hours. However, models are in disagreement on intensification, with GFS having 94P attain tropical storm strength in 48 hours and ECMWF much later (at around 96 hours).

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98P…which is located approximately 359 NM northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a developing low-
level circulation (llc) with persistent deep convection over the llc. recent Scatterometer data indicates the system is forming along the southern edge of an extensive area of 30-35 knot westerlies.

Environmental analysis indicates that 98P is in a favorable environment for further development with low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, good equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 98P will track southeastward, north of American Samoa over the next 48 hours as it continues to develop. GFS has 98P intensifying to tropical storm strength within 12 hours, but ECMWF is not nearly as aggressive and does not have 98P attaining tropical storm strength at all.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.