By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, February 6, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 10P (Nat)…is located approximately 435 NM west of Bora Bora
Tropical Cyclone 11P…is located approximately 53 NM east of Manua Islands
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.
From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
Central North Pacific:
The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.
Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Southwestern Pacific Ocean…
Tropical Cyclone 10P (Nat)
According to the JTWC warning number 5, sustained winds are 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery a medium-sized system embedded in the south pacific convergent zone that is fast approaching the strong westerlies as evidenced by transverse banding along the outflow cirrus to the south. the cold dense overcast has deepened over the past six hours, punctuated by overshooting cloud tops.
Analysis indicates a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong poleward outflow offset by moderate to strong vertical wind shear.
TC Nat will continue on its current east-southeastward track under the steering influence of the ridge for the remainder of the forecast. The marginal environment will sustain the current intensity, at best, up to 12 hours. Afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment at the low levels will gradually erode the system to dissipation by 48 hours possibly sooner.
Tropical Cyclone 11P
According to the JTWC warning number 1, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a small, consolidating system with improved convective banding wrapping into a defined low-level circulation center (llcc). A microwave image reveals deep convective banding over the western semicircle wrapping into the southern quadrant of the llcc.
Upper-level conditions remain favorable with near-radial outflow and enhanced poleward outflow venting into the subtropical jet to the south.
Tropical cyclone 11P is forecast to track southeastward through 24 hours along the southern periphery of the ridge but is expected to turn southward and slow as it encounters a broad low-level high positioned to the south. This high will effectively block poleward progression and steer the system slowly westward by 72 hours.
TC 11P will continue to intensify through 24 hours due to robust poleward outflow into the subtropical jet and warm sea surface temperature values. The peak intensity will occur near 24 hours at 40 knots. After 24 hours, the system will approach the northeast periphery of a strong upper-level low, which will lead to a steady weakening trend, with increasing vertical wind shear.
As the system stalls after 48 hours, the strong upper-level low and its associated trough will shift south of the system, which will accelerate the weakening trend and lead to dissipation by 72 hours.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94P…which is located approximately 515 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a broad, partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) with fragmented banding in the southern semicircle.
Environmental analysis indicates that 94P is in a favorable environment for development with good outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface
Global models are in partial disagreement on the track of 94P. GFS has 94P tracking southeastward over the next 48 hours before turning southward toward New Caledonia, while ecmwf has it tracking slowly eastward over the next 48 hours before turning
southeastward, north of New Caledonia.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.