Tropical Cyclone 12P / Remnants of 10P
Friday, February 9, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, February 9, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 12P…is located approximately 36 NM north of Port Vila, Vanuatu


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.


Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Southwestern Pacific Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 12P

According to the JTWC warning number 9, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an extremely weak system, with scattered disorganized convection flaring in multiple sectors of the circulation. tropical cyclone 12P continues to struggle in the face of persistent northwesterly shear, the influence of dry mid-level air, and a highly asymmetric vortex. A microwave image revealed a broad and ill-defined low emissivity region, denoting the outlines of the overall circulation.

The environment continues to be marginal at best, with relatively moderate deep-layer shear, strong poleward and eastward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by the continued presence of dry mid-level air to the west.

TC 12P will track east-southeastward along the tight gradient flow between a deep-layer ner centered to the
northeast and a deep trough to the southwest for the next 24 to 36 hours. After 36 hours, the ner will build southwestward, eventually pinching off into a separate subtropical ridge (str) which will then quickly transit westward. The development of this str will have the effect of slowing the eastward progression of TC 12P, with the system ultimately becoming quasi-stationary by the end of the forecast as the str moves into position due east of TC 12P.

In terms of intensity, little to no change in the intensity is expected for the next 12 to 24 hours as the environmental conditions remain relatively stagnant. a brief respite from the moderate shear is anticipated to begin by 24 hours, which will allow for a short period of intensification.

But the party will be short-lived, as shear will increase sharply and usher in a much drier air mass after 36 hours. The combined effects of the increased shear and dry air will induce rapid weakening, with TC 12P expected to dissipate over water no later than 72 hours.


>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Remnants of 10P…which is located approximately 287 NM east-southeast of Papeete, Tahiti.

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated visible satellite imagery depicts a warm core asymmetric system with convection that has been sheared to the southeast of a partially exposed low level circulation
(llc), typical of a subtropical system. A previous microwave pass revealed an elongated llc that is still holding on to robust flaring convection despite the high levels of wind shear.

Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions for tropical transition defined by a deep layer of dry air being advected over the circulation, strong westerlies aloft, and high (greater than 40 knots) vertical wind shear.

Global models are in agreement that the remnants of TC 10P will track southeastward with a broad and asymmetric wind field.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 38 to 43 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.