Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, February 20, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 16S (Eleanor)…is located approximately 370 NM north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 16S (Eleanor)

According to the JTWC warning number 5, sustained winds are 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating medium-sized system with deep rain bands feeding in mostly from the north and south into an obscured low level circulation center, creating a banding eye-feature near the intersection.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and moderate dual outflow aloft.

TC Eleanor will continue eastward under the ridge. After 12 hours, a building subtropical ridge to the east will assume steering and drive the system southward then south-southwestward.

After 72 hours, a secondary ridge to the south will compete for steering and slowly drive the cyclone westward. The favorable environment will fuel a steady intensification to a peak of 75 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the system down to 40 knots by 120 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as the Remnants of 14P…which is located approximately 222 NM east of Broome, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depict a well-defined low-level circulation with organized convection and shallow banding. Remnants of 14P are currently located over land.

Environmental analysis indicates poor equatorward outflow aloft offset by low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear and good convergence at the surface.

Global numerical model guidance is in good agreement that remnants of 14P will continue tracking west-northwestward with potential to further consolidate as it nears the northwest Australian coastline.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as the Invest 96P…which is located approximately 184 NM south of Niue

Animated visible satellite imagery depicts an elongated, weakly-defined low-level circulation (llc) embedded within a trough, with stratocumulus clouds advecting along the western semicircle. Significant dry, stable air associated with the stratocumulus field is hindering convective development.

The system is located within weak subtropical westerly flow with low to moderate vertical wind shear
offset by vigorous poleward outflow. Consequently, a microwave image indicates limited convective banding over the southeastern quadrant with a poorly-defined center.

Global models reveal an east-southeastward to southeastward track over the next two days, with gradient-induced winds of 25-30 knots over the southern semicircle.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.