CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira)…located approximately 286 NM north of Minami Tori Shima
Northeast PacificWhat the computer models are showing… for what’s being referred to as Invest 94E A broad area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small low embedded within this area has decreased since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development and a tropical depression will likely form within the next two or three days. The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward for the next several days and then turn west-northwestward by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Here’s a satellite image of this areaHere’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North PacificTropical Cyclone 15W (Kujira)
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals an improving characterized by increasing poleward outflow and robust equatorward outflow being offset by a broad, convergent upper low located to the southwest of the system. Warm sea surface temperatures and low <10 knot wind shear remain conducive for continued development…establishing an overall favorable environment. TS 15W is forecast to track north-northwestward through 12 hours with steady intensification. The system is expected to peak at 65 knots by 36 hours. After 48 hours, TS Kujira will weaken as it encounters increasing 25-30 knot wind shear, and tracks over cool sea surface temperatures.