CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 1510 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 19E…is located about 405 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 167 miles west-southwest of Iwo To, Japan
Northeast PacificTropical Cyclone 18E (Marie) What the computer models are showing According to the NHC’s Advisory 28…Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Tropical Cyclone 19E What the computer models are showing According to the NHC advisory 2…The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. The depression is forecast to remain nearly stationary through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday, and then little change in strength is forecast through midweek. >>> A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This disturbance is producing only disorganized cloudiness and a few showers. Some slight development of this system is possible over the next day or so while the system moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent >>> Another broad area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is currently producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity, but conditions could become a little more conducive for development in a couple of days. This disturbance is forecast to move generally northwestward at a very slow forward speed through most of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Western North PacificTropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, the system is slowly tracking through a favorable environment for further development with low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. TD 16W will continue tracking generally northwestward through 72 hours. During this time, the storm is forecast to reach an intensity of 85 knots by 72 hours…due to the continued low wind shear and warm sea water temperatures.