CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 165 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)…is located approximately 779 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Northeast PacificA broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico by Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Typhoon 22W (Goni)
Here’s what the computer models show for this Typhoon According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals environment a very favorable environment, with very warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 know wind shear, and robust radial outflow. TY 22W will make landfall over central Luzon, tracking just south of Manila, and exit into the South China Sea. The environment will remain favorable in the near term, however, with a gradual weakening…although still at Super Typhoon intensity.
Afterwards, interaction with the rugged terrain will cause significant decay and weaken the system to 75 knots by 36 hours after moves into the South China Sea. After 36 hours, TY 22W will steadily weaken to 55 knots by 72 hours, due to increased 20-25 knot wind shear.
Beyond 72 hours, Goni will continue westward, making a second and final landfall over central Vietnam south of Da Nang within 108 hours. The system will continue to gradually weaken due to moderate 20-25 knot wind shear, and after landfall…rapid weakening with the addition of frictional effects from the terrain.
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, TD remains in a overall unfavorable environment, with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear and weak outflow aloft, offset only slightly by warm sea surface temperatures. The environment is forecast to improve slightly as wind shear weakens and poleward outflow improves slightly…leading to a slow intensification to 55 knots by 72 hours. In the extended forecast, the system will move west-southwest and then westward. Environmental conditions are forecast to improve even more with decreased wind shear and the addition of an equatorward outflow channel. These conditions, coupled with continued warm sea surface temperatures, will allow for further intensification to 80 knots within 120 hours.