CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)…is located approximately 38 NM south-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 909 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Northeast Pacific
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Central Pacific
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave) – Final Warning
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, upper level analysis reveals increased 30+ knot wind shear. This, plus interaction with the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the system as it drags across Vietnam, Laos, and into Thailand…leading to dissipation.
Tropical Cyclone 22W
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, TS 22W is tracking over warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, and under low 5-10 knot wind shear, and good radial outflow. This is a favorable environment for continued development.
TS 22W will continue to track westward through 12 hours, then west-southwestward, until by 72 hours, will be approximately 345 NM east of Manila. The favorable conditions will promote gradual intensification up to 48 hours, then rapid intensification to a peak of 105 knots by 72 hours…as it drifts over a warmer pool of water in the Philippine Sea.
After 72 hours, the system will track more west-northwestward, making landfall over central Luzon, Philippines around 102 hours, then exit into the South China Sea by 108 hours. Interaction with the rugged terrain in addition to increased 20 knot wind shear, will lead to a weakening down to 55 knots by 120 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 146 NM west-southwest of Chuuk, FSM
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, Invest 90W is in a favorable environment for development with equatorward outflow aloft, low <15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 90W will consolidate and strengthen over the next 36-72 hours as it tracks northwestward.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
