CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Saudel)…is located approximately 117 NM north-northwest of Da Nang, Vietnam – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)…is located approximately 94 NM south-southwest of Manila, Philippines
Northeast PacificHere’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North PacificTropical Cyclone 19W (Saudel) – Final Warning
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, environmental analysis shows moderate to high 20-30 knot wind shear, fair westward outflow, and marginal sea surface temperatures. TD 19W will continue to move westward then west-southwestward through the forecast period, steadily weakening as the storm approaches the coast of Vietnam. After landfall prior to 12 hours, the system will continue to weaken as it moves inland, tracking across mountainous terrain. Dissipation is expected by 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 146 NM southwest of Guam Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Invest 99W is currently in a favorable environment with moderate eastward upper level outflow, being supported by low 10-20 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are split, with some tracking 99W generally northwestward with little to no intensification. However, others show more significant intensification after several days. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals and overall favorable environment, characterized by robust equatorward outflow, low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. In the near term, TY 21W is expected to maintain intensity as it tracks westward over the inner seas south of Luzon. After the system re-emerges over the South China Sea in near 12 hours, the typhoon will begin to re-intensify due to persistent favorable conditions, reaching a peak intensity of 85 knots by 48 hours. The system will then gradually weaken as it tracks west-northwestwards towards the coast. Following landfall after 60 hours, the storm will begin to weaken more rapidly as it moves over central Vietnam. In the extended range, TY 21W will weaken rapidly as it tracks westward over the physical terrain, with dissipation over land expected by 120 hours.