CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 138 NM north of Chichi Jima, Japan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 18W (Nangka)…is located about 236 NM south-southwest of Hong Kong
Northeast Pacific
An area of low pressure, associated in part with the remnants of Norbert, is located less than 100 miles east-southeast of Socorro Island, Mexico. Satellite imagery and recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low has continued to become better defined, while associated showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized. If this recent development trend continues, then a short-lived tropical depression could form on Tuesday while the low moves slowly west-northwestward. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…hot…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…hot…70 percent
Central Pacific
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom) – Final Warning
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, environmental analysis indicates unfavorable conditions with moderate 20-25 knot wind shear, convergence aloft and significant dry air entrainment.
TD 16W is forecast to track southeastward and expected to dissipate within 12 hours.
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals a favorable environment low wind shear, good equatorward outflow and expanding poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures,
The system will track generally westward through 72 hours as it intensifies to a peak of 55 knots by 24 hours. After 24 hours, the system will weaken as it tracks over Hainan Island and into the Gulf of Tonkin.
TS 18W will make landfall over northeast Vietnam near 60 hours and will weaken as it tracks inland…dissipating by 96 hours.
>>> There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 300 NM northwest of Palau.
According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment for development with low <15 knot wind shear, poleward aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in some agreement that Invest 94W will continue to track northwestward, and making landfall in the central Philippines…before consolidating further in the South China Sea.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
North Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B, which is located approximately 106 NM south-southwest of Visakhapatnam, India
According to the JTWC, the system is in a marginally favorable environment for development with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, diffluence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models indicate a limited west-northwestward track over water, with imminent landfall.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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