Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Oct 1, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 940 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)
What the computer models are showing
According to the NHC’s Advisory 12…Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).
>>>A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this system is possible into early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent