CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01S (Alicia)…is located approximately 428 NM south of Diego Garcia
Northeast PacificHere’s what the computer models are showing…for what’s being referred to as Invest 98E Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms remain displaced well to the southeast of a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for development over the next couple of days or so as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Thereafter, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low…30 percent Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco) – Final WarningHere’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, composite radar loops and numerous surface wind observations including those from Vinh, Dong Hoi, and Savannakhet AP, indicate TY 25W has made landfall. The rugged terrain of Indochina Peninsula, plus the entrainment of cool dry continental air will rapidly erode the system, as it drags further inland across central Vietnam and central Laos…leading to dissipation within 24 hours as it enters Thailand.
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, and strong westward and poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. The favorable environment will fuel steady intensification to a peak of 65 knots within 12 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the cyclone toward dissipation by 96 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 328 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Invest 93S is located in a marginal environment, with poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by high 30-40 knot wind shear. Models generally agree that the system will remain at its current intensity as it interacts with TC Alicia, and losing strength before turning south-southwestward. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android wwwices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.