CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Etau)…is located approximately 178 NM northeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)…is located approximately 203 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Northeast PacificA broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for slow development through the weekend as this system drifts slowly west-northwest over the east Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 24W (Etau) – Final Warning
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has made landfall over southern Vietnam just north of Cam Ranh Airport. TS 24W is expected to track further inland and dissipate within 12 hours, as it crosses into Cambodia, mostly due to the frictional effects brought on by the rugged terrain. Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates the system remains in favorable area, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, and strong radial outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea remain warm. TS Vamco will track westward toward the Philippines, passing just to the north of Camarines Norte before making landfall over the Province of Bulacan around 30 hours. Afterward, it will drag across the National Capital region just north of Manila before exiting into the South China Sea around 36 hours. The favorable environment will fuel a rapid intensification to 80 knots by 24 hours just before landfall. Afterwards, land interaction will erode the system down to 70 knots as it exits into the warm South China Sea, where it will re-consolidate and strengthen slightly to 75 knots by 72 hours. After 72 hours, TS Vamco will track west-northwestward, making landfall over central Vietnam, south of Da Nang just after 96 hours. As the system tracks further west over the South China Sea, decreasing sea surface temperatures will weaken the system down to 50 knots by 96 hours…before landfall. Afterward, the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the system down to 30 knots by 120 hours…after it crosses into Laos.
South Indian Ocean
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 1137 NM east of Diego Garcia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, the environment continues to be favorable for development, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures…and moderate equatorward and poleward outflow aloft. The models agree that Invest 92S will continue to slowly consolidate as it tracks southwestward over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low. Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android wwwices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.