CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 147 NM west of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)…is located approximately 439 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines
Northeast PacificA trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Goni)
Here’s what the computer models showing According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals a marginal environment, with moderate low 20-25 knot wind shear, and partially offset by good radial outflow. TS 22W will continue on its current track, re-consolidate, then track more westward. The marginal upper level dynamics combined with frictional effects from the islands will continue to weaken TS Goni to 50 knots by 24 hours.
Afterwards, the addition of cooling sea surface temperatures and increased westward outflow will moderate the environment, resulting in generally sustained 50 knot intensity with a slight peak to 55 knots by 48 hours.
Beyond 72 hours, Goni will track west-southwestward, making a landfall over southern Vietnam near Qui Nohn within 96 hours. Cooling sea surface temperatures and land interaction will primarily erode the system to dissipation by 120 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, the environment is overall unfavorable, with moderate 20-25 knot wind shear and weak outflow aloft, offset slightly by warm sea surface temperatures. TD 23W will continue on its current track in the Philippine Sea, although remain in a nearly stationary state up to 72 hours. The environment is forecast to improve as wind shear weakens and poleward outflow increases, fueling a steady intensification to 65 knots by 72 hours. In the extended forecast, the system will move westward. Environmental conditions are forecast to improve, with decreased wind shear and the addition of an equatorward outflow channel. These conditions, coupled with continued warm sea surface temperatures, will allow for further intensification to 80 knots…as it approaches the Luzon Strait. Afterwards, increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures in the Luzon Strait and into the South China Sea will gradually weaken the system down to 70 knots by 120 hours.