Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 31, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan) is located approximately 457 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Blanca) is located approximately 620 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California
Eastern north PacificTropical Cyclone 02E (Blanca)
BLANCA STRENGTHENING AND LIKELY TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY…Advisory 6
What the computer models are showing
Blanca is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected tonight and Tuesday morning.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday night and then continue through Thursday. Blanca is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
>>>A weak and broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system will be moving west-northwestward toward an environment of unfavorable upper-level winds, drier air, and cooler waters during the next day or so. Therefore, significant development of this disturbance is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percentTropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan)
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 10)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the main convection continues to remain detached from the partially exposed low level circulation.
Fair easterly outflow and warm sea surface temperatures are currently being offset by moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear and dry air-entraining along the northern side of the system.
Under the steering influence of the ridge, TS 04W will continue to track northwestward, reaching the eastern side of the Philippine Islands in the warm Philippine Sea. The system is forecast to slowly intensify as conditions will begin slightly improving once it approaches the ridge axis nearing the east coast of Luzon with a peak of 65 knots by 48 hours.
After 72 hours, TS 04W will crest the ridge axis, turn and accelerate northeastward. as TS 04W transits to the northeast, it will move into a region of higher wind shear, as it approaches the prevailing westerlies. The system will then begin eroding more rapidly due to cooling sea surface temperatures and decrease intensity to 50 knots by 96 hours. Concurrently at 96 hours, the cyclone will begin extra-tropical transition and complete transition thru 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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