Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 29, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W is located approximately 67 NM southwest of Palau
Eastern north Pacific
Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is limited and disorganized.
This system is expected to move generally westward at 5 to 10 mph into a drier and more stable airmass during the next few days, with little, if any further development expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent>>> Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percentTropical Cyclone 04W
Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 2)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating system with fragmented, formative bands wrapping into a defined low level circulation…along with overshooting cloud tops over the central convection.
TD 04W is in a favorable environment with good radial outflow, low (5-10k knot) wind shear aloft, and very warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.
TD 04W is forecast to continue northwestward offshore and parallel to the east coast of the Philippines over the next 72 hours, under the steering influence of the ridge. The system is forecast to rapidly intensify under the favorable conditions, reaching 45 knots by 25 hours.
Afterward, intensification will be more gradual as wind shear becomes more moderate (15-20 knots), and by 72 hours will reach 60 knots.
After 72 hours, TD 04W will begin to round the ridge axis then accelerate northeastward. At this stage, it will also be over the warmest waters of its forecast track and wind shear will weaken to 05-10kts, fueling the intensity to typhoon strength of 65kts. By 120 hours, the system will reach 70 knots, as it becomes exposed to increased poleward outflow associated with the prevailing westerlies under the polar front jet.
There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to asInvest 90W, which is located approximately 527 NM southeast of Guam.
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals mid to upper level turning over an ill-defined low level circulation.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, a point source aloft with near radial outflow, and low (<15 knot) wind shear.
Global models are in fair agreement that invest 90W will potentially gain intensity over the next couple of days and then lose strength as it propagates northwestward, with the exception of GFS, which shows a strengthening and consolidation beyond 72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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