Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 28, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing
A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this system is still poorly organized, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression could form this weekend. This disturbance is expected to move slowly northward toward Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico this weekend and early next week. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 92A, which is located approximately 32 NM southeast of Salalah, Oman
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a low level low level circulation, with flaring convection overhead.
Environmental analysis indicates a overall favorable environment for development, with low <15 knot wind shear, good equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models indicate that the disturbance will straddle the Oman coastline as it tracks northwestward, and then turns westward over the next 48-72 hours. The amount of intensification depends largely on how close to the coastline the low level center remains.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
There are no active tropical cyclones
Central North Pacific
There are no active tropical cyclones
PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on June 1st.
2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin
The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year.
Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018.
Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef.
Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5.
Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.