Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 24, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02B (Yaas) is located approximately 265 NM south of Kolkata, India
Tropical Cyclone 02B (Yaas)
Sustained 60 knot winds…with gusts to 75 knots (as of Warning Number 5)Here’s what the computer models are showingAccording to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating circulation with deep convective banding mostly over the western semicircle.
TC 02B is currently in a marginally favorable environment with robust westward and poleward outflow aloft and very warm sea surface temperatures…offset by moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.The system is forecast to remain in the marginally favorable environment for the next 24 hours up to landfall at 26/00z, as it will continue to intensify and track north-northwestward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast.After 12 hours, the wind shear is forecast to decrease to <15 knots, allowing TC 02B to reach a peak intensity of 70 knots by 24 hours, while making landfall near Bhitarkanika National Park, India. After 36 hours, the system will begin rapidly decaying due to land interaction and becoming fully dissipated by 72 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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