Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 20, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 589 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a fully exposed low level circulation with persistent convection in the northwestern periphery and flaring convection beginning to form in the southeastern periphery.
Analysis indicates a marginal environment for development characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, and poleward outflow with a developing equatorward outflow channel, offset by moderate to high 20-30 knot wind shear.
Global models generally agree that invest 91S will lose strength and become less organized as it propagates eastward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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