Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 17, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 01B (Amphan)is located approximately 530 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India
Tropical Cyclone 01B (Amphan) is an extremely dangerous storm, which will bring flooding rainfall, high surf, high winds…and a large storm surge to a highly populated low elevation area (Equivalent to a Super Typhoon)
Sustained winds of 145 knots, with gusts to 175 knots…as of Warning 10
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a very large system (over 600 NM across), with a ragged 10-NM cloud filled eye and expansive rain bands wrapping towards the center.
TC 01B is in a favorable environment with light to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, that is being offset by strong radial outflow, and a storm motion that’s in-phase with the upper level winds.
Wind shear will increase as the TC moves poleward, however the strong radial outflow and the storm motion being in-phase with the upper level wind flow, will easily offset the wind shear. In addition, along-track sea surface temperatures are very conducive.
TC Amphan will continue to track northward in the Bay of Bengal. After 24 hours it will track more north-northeastward.
The favorable conditions will fuel rapid intensification to a peak of 110 knots around 48 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear will begin to weaken the system down to 75 knots by 72 hours…as it makes landfall just to the southeast of Kolkata.
After landfall, extremely rugged terrain, in addition to high wind shear, will rapidly erode the cyclone, leading to dissipation by 96 hours.
News story from the area>>> There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98S, which is located approximately 340 NM north-northwest of Cocos Island, Australia
Here’s what the GEFS computer model is showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an area of broad turning with flaring convection.
Environmental analysis reveals the disturbance is in a marginally favorable environment, with good poleward outflow, with warm sea surface temperatures…which are being offset by high >25 knot wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement 98S will track southwestward with slow, steady intensification…before turning to a more southward track.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
There are no active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Central North Pacific
There are no active tropical cyclones
PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on June 1st.
2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin
The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year.
Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018.
Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef.
Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5.
Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.