Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 16, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01A (Tauktae) is located approximately 78 NM west-southwest of Mumbai, India
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
One tropical storm, Andres, already formed earlier this month. The next named storm that develops this season will be Blanca.
Tropical Cyclone 01A (Tauktae)
Sustained 120 knot winds…with gusts to 145 knots (as of Warning Number 12)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep compact system with a ragged 12 NM eye.
The upper-level analysis indicates favorable environmental conditions with strong poleward outflow, low to moderate wind shear (10-15 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures.
The system is currently undergoing rapid intensification, fueled by a favorable environment lasting through the next 6 hours and will reach a peak intensity of 105 knots.
Thereafter, the system will begin a weakening trend as it enters a region of higher shear, rounds the ridge axis, and then makes landfall between Veraval and Mahuva, India, between 24 and 36 hours.
After making landfall, the system will begin to weaken rapidly over the rugged terrain before completing dissipation b 72 hours, possibly sooner.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90S, which is located approximately 231 NM northeast of Diego Garcia
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a small pocket of convection obscuring an ill-defined low level circulation.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by poleward outflow and very warm sea surface temperatures, marginally offset by low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear.
Global models generally agree that invest 90S will propagate southwestward while remaining elongated with a marginal strengthening of winds in the southern periphery.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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