Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 15, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01A (Tauktae) is located approximately 237 NM south of Mumbai, India
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 15, 8, and 4, respectively.
One tropical storm, Andres, already formed earlier this month. The next named storm that develops this season will be Blanca.
Tropical Cyclone 01A (Tauktae)
Sustained 75 knot winds…with gusts to 90 knots (as of Warning Number 8)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the central dense overcast obscuring a low level circulation center.
The upper-level analysis indicates favorable environmental conditions with radial outflow, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperature values.
TC 01A will continue to migrate to the north-northwest through 60 hours, just before making landfall near Porbandar, India.
The possibility of rapid intensification remains high during the next 24 to 36 hours, as the environmental conditions continually improve as TC 01A moves north, shear weakens, and outflow increases…reaching a peak intensity of 105 knots by 48 hours.
After 48 hours, the system will begin to round the ridge axis and make initial landfall near Porbandar, India. The system will lose some intensity as it recurves to the north-northeast and reemerges over the Gulf of Kutch, making landfall once again, this time near Gandhidham, India, and begins dissipating as it moves across the Pakistan/India border…fully dissipating over the Thar desert near 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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