Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 13, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 03W is located approximately 40 NM southwest of Davao, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 03W
Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 6)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an exposed low-level circulation displaced west of an isolated deep convective burst. However, a color composite microwave image indicate shallow banding wrapping into a compact, well-defined center.
Environmental analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with low vertical wind shear, weak poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.
TS 03W is forecast to track westward to west-northwestward through the forecast period under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge positioned to the north.
TS 03W is expected to intensify slightly to 40 knots by 12 hours, but will weaken as it tracks over Mindanao from 12 to 36 hours. After 36 hours, the system will gradually dissipate due to increasing (20-25 knots) of wind shear, and upper-level convergence associated with a persistent upper-level trough.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92A, which is located approximately 530 NM south of Mumbai, India
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a broad area of deep convection with formative banding.
Environmental analysis indicate invest 92A is in a favorable environment for development with robust radial aloft, very warm sea surface temperature…and low (10-15 knot) wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 92A will consolidate quickly and intensify…as it tracks northward over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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