CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 01W is located approximately 266 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines (Vongfong)

  https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg   Tropical Cyclone 01W (Vongfong) Sustained winds of 85 knots, with gusts to 105 knots…as of Warning 12 Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows symmetrical, spiral bands wrapping into a center that continues to be obscured by convection. The environment remains very favorable for additional rapid intensification, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, and robust radial outflow. The storm will track west-northwestward through 36 hours, as conditions remain highly favorable for rapid intensification with continued warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and divergence aloft. After 48 hours, Typhoon Vongfong will turn north-northwest and accelerate. By 72 hours, the storm will reach landfall for a second time over Luzon, where it will weaken to 85 knots due to terrain effects. After 72 hours, TY Vongfong will begin a general north-northeasterly track. As it travel over Luzon and reenters the Philippine Sea it will weaken to 65 knots by 96 hours. This weakening trend will continue as the system travels into the Luzon Strait, eventually weakening to 50 knots by 120 hours. What Pagasa is saying about (what they’re calling) Severe Tropical Storm Ambo   There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91B, located 550 NM southeast of Visakhapatnam, India Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation with some weak formative banding to the southeast. Invest 91B is in a favorable environment for development, with good equatorward outflow, warm sea surface temperatures, and low <15 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that Invest 91B will continue to consolidate and intensify as it tracks northward in the Bay of Bengal. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.    

Northeast Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on May 15th.

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on June 1st. 2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018. Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef. Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5. Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Vongfong) JTWC textual warning JTWC graphical map Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android wwwices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.