Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 12, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 01Wis located approximately 465 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines (Vongfong)
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Vongfong)
Sustained winds of 70 knots, with gusts to 85 knots…as of Warning 7
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep, symmetrical convection obscuring a low level circulation center below.
Tropical storm Vongfong is traversing an environment favorable for rapid intensification, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, established equatorward and poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Over the next 12 hours, the storm will track generally north-northwestward, then generally westward from 24 hours until landfall at Samar Island by 48 hours.
The environment over the next 2-days is expected to remain highly favorable for further development and intensification, as the system moves over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea.
The peak intensity of 65 knots is forecast to occur by 48 hours, whereupon the system will struggle to further intensify as it makes landfall by 48 hours. After 72 hours, the storm will begin a northwestward track until 96 hours…as it travels over land.
The friction effects of land interaction will limit further development and lead to slight weakening of the system. However, this weakening will be offset by continue robust poleward outflow…and low 5-10 knot wind shear.
By 96 hours, the system will weaken to 50 knots, primarily due to the long track over land during this period.
TS 01W will to track north-northeastward after this time, and reach the warm waters of the Philippine Sea north of Aparri by 120 hours.
What Pagasa is saying about what they’re calling Tropical Storm Ambo
There are no active tropical cyclones
PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on May 15th.
Central North Pacific
There are no active tropical cyclones
PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on June 1st.
2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin
The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year.
Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018.
Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef.
Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5.
Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.