Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 8, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)is located approximately 848 NM southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 10)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the inner core has degraded during the past 12 hours, with a shrinking cirrus canopy and no eye evident.
Forecast confidence is moderate given relatively weak steering influences during the forecast period. This track brings 24S over a warm oceanic eddy to the west with a slightly accelerated speed during the first 72 hours, which in combination with low shear, should result in re-intensification.
Given the currently compact vortex structure, this intensification could be swift, and the cyclone is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 115 knots by 72 hours.
An approaching mid-latitude trough is expected to impart increasing wind shear, and the southward track at that time will begin taking the cyclone over slightly cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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