CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
 Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 682 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 572 NM south-southwest of Suva, Fiji Final Warning
 
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/24S_061800sair.jpg Sustained 120 knot winds…with gusts to 145 knots (as of Warning Number 6) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a compact system that maintained a pinhole 12 NM eye as the central dense overcast deepened and became more symmetric. TC 24S is in an overall favorable environment with dual channel upper level outflow, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. TC Habana is expected to slow down and begin tracking southeastward then southward through the next 24-48 hours. Afterward, a subtropical ridge will build to the south and assume steering, turning the system to a westward track for the remainder of the forecast. TC 24S is forecast to slowly weaken primarily due to the limited upper level outflow, and by 72 hours will be reduced to 80 knots. Afterward, a secondary intensification phase will occur by 120 hours…which will allow re-strengthening to 90 knots.  
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) Final Warning
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23P_070000sair.jpg Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 25)  Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has continued to elongate, with frontal characteristics more pronounced as it accelerated to the southeast. Upper level analysis indicates robust poleward outflow that is offset by strong 30+ knot wind shear. Sea surface temperatures have also dropped. The unfavorable environment will sustain the rapid weakening down to 40 knots by 36 hours. Concurrently, TC Niran will begin subtropical transition by 12 hours, and by 36 hours will become a gale-force subtropical low…possibly sooner.   https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2021/sh912021.21030612.gif https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210306.211500.SH912021.seviri.msg-4.Infrared-Gray.30kts.100p0.1p0.jpg There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 142 NM west-southwest Des Galets, La Reunion Island Here’s was the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows quickly consolidating and flaring convection. Environmental analysis shows 91S is a favorable environment with dual channel upper level outflow, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in general agreement that 91S will track east-southeast while continuing to consolidate and intensify. Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 25-30 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.