CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 550 NM south-southwest of Cocos Islands, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 196 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 13)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has greatly weakened as evidenced by warming cloud tops in the central dense overcast and unraveling rain bands.
The system is in a deteriorating environment, with increasing 15+ knot wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures.
The harsh environment will continue the gradual weakening and eventual dissipation of TC Marian by 96 hours, possibly sooner.
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran)
Sustained 85 knot winds…with gusts to 105 knots (as of Warning Number 13)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has maintained overall convective signature with the main feeder band wrapping in from the north into an obscured low level circulation that is under cold overshooting cloud tops.
The environment is overall favorable with low 10-15 knot wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures partly offset by limited outflow aloft.
The ridge to the north is expected to build and become the dominant steering mechanism, and by 12 hours drive it southeastward, passing just south of New Caledonia around 60 hours, and by 96 hours, should be approximately 440 NM north northeast of Auckland, New Zealand.
The marginally favorable environment will improve as the cyclone tracks poleward into improved upper level outflow, and help fuel a steady intensification to a peak of 105 knots by 36 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the cyclone down to 70 knots by 96 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as
Invest 90S, which is located approximately 576 NM southwest of Diego Garcia
Here’s was the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows formative convective banding beginning to wrap into an obscured low level circulation center.
Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with development characterized by equatorward outflow aloft, low to moderate 10-20 knot winds shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models generally indicate invest 90S will track east-southeast as it consolidates and strengthens.
Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to
medium.
Here’s a link to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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