Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 21, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 150 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows low level convective bands wrapping into a low level circulation center that is obscured by persistent convection.
Invest 95S is in an overall favorable environment for development with low <15 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and poleward outflow aloft.
Numerical models provide divergent solutions. the deterministic GFS solution, for example, predicts only minimal development, while the navgem and ukmet solutions predict moderate development into a tropical storm strength system. There is fair agreement that the system will continue to track slowly westward over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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