Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 15, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)is located approximately 454 NM east-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues Island, Mauritius – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 24)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the main convection continued to rapidly decay as it sheared 160+ NM southeastward from a large, ragged, and fully exposed low level circulation.
The system is in a very unfavorable environment with high 25+ knot wind shear aloft and dry air entrainment near the surface. TC 24S is quasi-stationary in a col between the subtropical ridge (str) to the west and the str to the east. Another str building to the south will assume steering around 12 hours and slowly drive the system westward. The harsh conditions will prevail and erode TC Habana to dissipation by 12 hours.
Afterward, its remnants will slowly drift westward, steered by the str to the south. numerical models are in good agreement…
however, given the uncertainty as to when the vortex eventually
exits the col, there is only moderate confidence in the JTWC track.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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