Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 13, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)is located approximately 717 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 20)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the presence of northwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment, leading to a degraded convective structure. Microwave images depict the strong low level circulation center with good effect. While the center remains robust, the microwave data also confirms the significant erosion of convective structure on the northwestern side due to the relatively high 20-25 knot wind shear.
The overall environment is becoming increasingly unfavorable, with strong and persistent northwesterly wind shear and entrainment of increasingly drier air in the mid-levels, being offset somewhat by a robust tap into a poleward outflow channel. The system is nearly stationary in a weak steering pattern.
As the trough slowly moves to the east over the next 36 hours, TC 24S is forecast to remain quasi-stationary, very slowly looping in a counter-clockwise motion. By 48 hours, a relatively strong ridge will build in behind the trough, ejecting TC Habana out of the weak steering region and accelerate it westward through 120 hours.
Continued high wind shear, increasing mid-level dry air entrainment, and the development of convergent flow aloft will serve to steadily weaken the system through the forecast period. There remains a possibility that the overall unfavorable conditions could result in dissipation as early as 72 hours. However, models are suggesting a small improvement in the moisture and shear environment, which combined with a track over warmer water, will allow for the system to remain a minimal tropical storm through 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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