Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 11, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)is located approximately 553 NM east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues Island, Mauritius
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 125 knot winds…with gusts to 150 knots (as of Warning Number 16)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a well-defined, clear eye surrounded by a central dense overcast that has been periodically broken in the western semicircle, possibly due to dry entrainment as upper-level winds begin to become westerly.
TC 24S remains in an environment of light 5 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, and is currently limited only by ambient dry air that is being periodically ingested into the circulation from the western and northern semicircles.
As the cyclone turns southward during the next 48 hours, a combination of gradually increasing wind shear, slightly cooler water, and dry entrainment will likely result in a gradual decrease in intensity.
Beyond 48 hours, the track forecast becomes important, as a quasi-stationary motion is expected to cause oceanic cooling beneath the cyclone. Combined with a simultaneous increase in wind shear to 30-40 knots, this is expected to result in rapid weakening between 48 and 72 hours, and steady decay thereafter through 120 hours.
By 48 hours, 24S will become marooned in a weak steering environment, consisting of westerly flow aloft and easterly flow in the lower troposphere as a surface high builds in from the southwest. There is good agreement in model guidance that a near-stall will occur around 48-72 hours.
Given the expectation that the vortex will rapidly decay and lose vertical coherence during this time, the JTWC track forecast shows a slow turn westward after 72 hours, as the low-level easterly flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism for the weakening cyclone.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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