CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 1399 NM west of Learmonth, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 154 NM northeast of Cairns, Australia
 
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22S_020000sair.jpg Sustained 90 knot winds…with gusts to 110 knots (as of Warning Number 9) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates that the convective cloud tops of cooled and the eye has become increasingly ragged over the past six hours. TC 22S has slowed significantly, becoming nearly quasi stationary over the past six hours, trapped between a near-equatorial ridge to the northeast, and a transient subtropical ridge to the south, which is effectively limiting much further poleward movement. While wind shear remains low 5-10 knots, upper-level divergence has is much weaker as the system becomes isolated for any tap into the deep westerlies. Upwelling of cooler waters, and the decrease in outflow are the limiting factors for any intensification in the near term. TC Marian will accelerate southeastward within the gradient between the ridge and the aforementioned trough after 24 hours in response. As the system translates southeastward it will move over steadily cooler water, and encounter convergent flow aloft, leading to steady weakening through 120 hours.    
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23P_020000sair.jpg Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 5) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates the system remains disorganized, with flaring convection displaced west of the partially exposed low level circulation center. surface observations from Bougainville Reef and Arlington Reef, as well as animated radar data from Cairns provided good clarification on the initial position. The overall environment is weakly favorable, wind shear is low 5-10 knots from the east, and sea surface temperatures are very warm. However outflow pattern is somewhat disorganized with the primary outflow channel to the west and a weaker channel to the south. Due to the relatively weak outflow the system is expected to only slowly intensify for the first 24 hours. By 48 hours, as the system starts to move closer to a shortwave trough, outflow will improve as it begins to tap into the deep westerlies, allowing for a faster rate of intensification…to a peak of 70 knots by 120 hours.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.