Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Jun 7, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
Eastern north Pacific
Here’s what the computer models are showing / this disturbance is being referred to as Invest 92E
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, and development of this system is now unlikely. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala in a day or two.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly northwestward or northward.
Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W, which is located approximately 363 NM south-southwest of Kwajalein Island.
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a consolidating area of convection with feeder bands to the north and flaring convection with overshooting tops just south of a low level circulation.
Invest 91W is in an environment favorable for tropical development with good equatorward outflow aloft, low (5-
10kts) wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are not in agreement with a tropical cyclone developing from invest 91W, however, the JTWC will closely monitor for potential development due to a favorable appearance in satellite analysis.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13-18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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