Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Jun 5, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan) is located approximately 92 NM north-northeast of Kadena, AB – Final Warning
Eastern north Pacific>>> Here’s what the computer models are showing / this disturbance is being referred to as Invest 92E
The area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form today or tomorrow while it moves slowly to the west well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent>>> A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it drifts slowly northward through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percentTropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan) – Final Warning
Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 28)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an elongating low-level circulation with decreasing wind speeds near the center.
Strong wind shear (greater than 20 knots) and passage over cooler water are inducing rapid weakening. Convective structure has completely deteriorated over the past six hours, and the only remaining deep convection is confined to a small area well to the northeast of the low-level circulation center.
The system will dissipate within the next 12 hours as it tracks northeastward under the current steering influences.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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