Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Jun 27, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 06W (Champi)…is located approximately 247 NM southeast of Yokosuka, Japan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 05E (Enrique)…is located 325 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone 05E (Enrique)CORE OF THE HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE WARNING AREAS
What the computer models are showing for Hurricane Enrique
Enrique is moving toward the north near 8 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected later today, and that general motion should continue thereafter for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning.
Enrique is forecast to begin weakening later today, and continue to weaken through early this week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday.
RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 06W (Champi) – Final Warning
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 26)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has elongated with the main convection collapsed and sheared northeastward, partly exposing the low level circulation
Environmental analysis indicates TS Champi has entered an area where sea surface temperatures have dropped and wind shear are >30 knots.
TS 06W will continue to accelerate northeastward on the poleward side of the steering ridge to the southeast. The system has begun extra-tropical transition and by 12 hours will transform into a gale-force cold core low with an expansive wind field.
Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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