CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dolores)…is located 205 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dolores)
DOLORES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the NHC…Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed is expected tonight through early Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico within the warning area this afternoon. Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes landfall this afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter, and Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Here’s what the
computer models are showing
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as
Invest 94W, which is located approximately 133 NM southeast of Chuuk
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a very broad area of dense, persistent convection with fragmented rain bands beginning to organize.
The environment is favorable for development with conducive, warm sea surface temperature values and low (5-10 knot) wind shear.
Numerical models are in agreement that invest 94W will continue to track west-northwestward toward Guam as it slowly intensifies over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to
medium.
Here’s a link to the
National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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