Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dolores)…is located 205 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico

 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dolores) DOLORES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the NHC…Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed is expected tonight through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico within the warning area this afternoon. Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes landfall this afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter, and Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.     Here’s what the computer models are showing There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 133 NM southeast of Chuuk According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a very broad area of dense, persistent convection with fragmented rain bands beginning to organize. The environment is favorable for development with conducive, warm sea surface temperature values and low (5-10 knot) wind shear. Numerical models are in agreement that invest 94W will continue to track west-northwestward toward Guam as it slowly intensifies over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.   Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.