Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 19) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery reveals that TC 08S has degraded significantly over the last 12 hours, with the low level circulation becoming elongated northwest-southeast…and near devoid of convection. Environmental analysis indicates that while wind shear is low 5-10 knots and sea surface temperatures are warm, there is minimal outflow aloft, evidenced by animated water vapor imagery showing no distinct outflow channels. This lack of outflow has hindered sustained core convection…and led to the recent weakening trend. The system is tracking west-southwestward. As outflow slowly improves over the next 24 to 48 hours, the system will slowly intensify to a peak of 40 knots by 48 hours. Thereafter, increasing wind shear and convergent flow aloft will result in a steady weakening trend and dissipation as a tropical cyclone by 120 hours. There remains a possibility that the system may develop into a gale-force subtropical low southeast of Madagascar near or slightly after 120 hours.