Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)…which is located approximately 906 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, in the South Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo) Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 16) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery indicates that TC 08S has significantly deteriorated as rain bands unraveled and central convection weakened, deformed and sheared westward of an obscured low level circulation center. Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with weak radial outflow and moderate15-20 knot wind shear aloft, and cooler along track sea surface temperatures. The environment will remain marginally favorable, fueling a slight intensification to 40 knots by 12 hours, sustained up to 48 hours. Afterward, cooling sea surface temperatures and diminishing outflow induced by an approaching mid-latitude trough will gradually erode the system leading to dissipation by 120 hours, after it tracks over Mauritius and La Reunion Islands.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as the Remnants of TC 09P, which is located approximately 222 NM south-southwest of Cairns, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a fully exposed, very weak low level circulation completely over land. Analysis shows the remnants of this disturbance is in a favorable environment, with good poleward outflow aloft. low 5-10 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures just off the coast.. Global models are in good agreement that the remnants of 09P will continue to follow the coastline, quickly dissipating over land. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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