Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)…which is located approximately 543 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo) Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 11) According to the JTWC…animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates that TC 08S has most likely completely absorbed the remnants of invest 93S over the previous 6 to 12 hours. The area of convection associated with the vorticity maxima that was invest 93S to the northwest, has dissipated over the past two hours, and convection has started to flare over the assessed low-level circulation center. The system is tracking slowly southward along the western periphery of a weakening near-equatorial ridge. Environmental analysis reveals marginal conditions characterized by low  5-10 knot wind shear, warm waters and moderate equatorward outflow. Over the next 24 hours, TC 08S will continue tracking slowly southward through a weak steering environment. By 36 hours, the ridge will strengthen sufficiently to presume the dominate steering role…pushing the system to a westward track through 96 hours. In the extended forecast, a development of a deep mid-latitude trough east of Madagascar will result in a slight turn poleward by 120 hours. Numerical model guidance is in general agreement on the overall track scenario, although continues to show significant differences in the timing of the turn to the west and the along-track speed.
Near-term intensification is expected as the system consolidates after absorption of 93S, although then remains steady through 36 hours, limited by weak upper-level outflow. By 48 hours, slowly improving outflow, low wind shear and continued warm sea surface temperatures will support steady intensification though 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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