CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Ana)is located approximately 13 NM east-southeast of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Cyclone 16P is located approximately 497 NM northwest of Suva, Fiji
 
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Ana) 
    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/15P_310000sair.jpg  

Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 5)
According to the JTWC, depicts a rapidly developing system, with deep symmetrical convection forming a central dense overcast obscuring the low level circulation center.
Upper-level analysis indicates a favorable environment with low wind shear and robust equatorward outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures remain conducive. However, poleward outflow is weak due to convergent flow over the southwest quadrant, and the lack of a significant upper-level trough.
Upper-level analysis indicates favorable environmental conditions with low 5-10 knot wind shear, and strong outflow both equatorward and poleward. Sea surface temperatures also remain conducive to further development.
In the near-term, interaction with the Vitu Levu will limit potential intensification, and thus intensity is forecast to remain steady through 12 hours. Once the center moves south of the main islands, it is forecast to again intensify, peaking at 65 knots by 24 hours.
After this point, the system is expected to accelerate southeastward, with increasing wind shear steadily, if slowly increasing. After 48 hours, the system begins to move over cooler waters and encounters high 25-35 knot wind shear associated with strong mid-latitude westerly flow aloft. The system is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone at or before 120 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 16P

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/16P_310000sair.jpg

Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 2)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts two areas of compact deep convection, one near the assessed center and the other displaced to the north, with low level bands wrapping into the southern convective area.
Environmental analysis reveals that the system lies in a marginally supportive region characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and robust equatorward outflow.
Over the next 24 to 36 hours, the system is forecast to turn towards the southeast. After 36 hours, the system will begin to interact with and become captured by TC 15P south of Fiji, ultimately becoming absorbed by TC 15P by 72 hours.
Over the next 24 hours the system should remain in an area of favorable conditions, allowing for a short burst of intensification to a peak of 45 knots. Thereafter the system will slowly weaken as it encounters increasing wind shear and convergent flow aloft, emanating from the outflow associated with TC 15P.
As the system closes and merges with TC 15P, the combination of the convergent flow aloft, cooler sea surface temperatures, and disruption of the low-level inflow will lead to dissipation as a distinct tropical cyclone by 72 hours.


There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 260 NM north of Cairns, Australia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates convective banding wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis depicts a favorable environment, with good outflow aloft, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in general agreement that the disturbance will track generally east-southeastward as it intensifies over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.  


There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98S, which is located approximately 114 NM east-southeast of Broome, Australia.
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows formative banding wrapping into a defined low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis shows a favorable environment for development, with low <15 knot wind shear and outflow aloft.
Global models are in strong agreement that 98S will track west-southwestward over the next 24-30 hours, and develop quickly once over water.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.  


There’s a disturbance which is the remnants of 13S, which is located approximately 516 NM west-northwest of Diego Garcia.
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad and disorganized low level circulation center.
Upper level analysis indicates remnants of 13S is in a moderately favorable environment for development with low <15 knot wind shear, fair outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that remnants of 13S will track west-northwestward over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.